NEW YORK [WABC] — Precipitation early Tuesday morning has been fairly light across the mid-Atlantic states and in the Northeast. A shortwave, or ripple of upper-level energy, will be pressing eastward across the Great Lakes and into upstate New York and western New England today. This will tend to enhance snowfall rates after 5 a.m. in areas such as in the Poconos and the Catskills, as well as in northwestern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and southern New England.
AccuWeather: A Wintry Mess!
NEW YORK [WABC] — Precipitation early Tuesday morning has been fairly light across the mid-Atlantic states and in the Northeast. A shortwave, or ripple of upper-level energy, will be pressing eastward across the Great Lakes and into upstate New York and western New England today. This will tend to enhance snowfall rates after 5 a.m. in areas such as in the Poconos and the Catskills, as well as in northwestern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and southern New England.
Snow and ice associated with a warm front currently located near the Ohio River continues to spread from west to east across West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Recent runs of various models have all reached a consensus that the heaviest/steadiest precipitation today and early tonight will occur north of Interstate 78. Those places that are located south of the warm front will encounter less precipitation.
Nonetheless, that precipitation (with a liquid equivalent expected to average 0.30″ through late today between NYC and PHL) will consist of snow for an average of 6-10 hours before mixing with sleet and freezing rain this afternoon and this evening along the coastal plain.
Regardless of the intensity (heavy, light or just flurries), it’ll be all snow before sleet and freezing rain mixes in along the immediate coastline of southeastern New York, southern New England and in Monmouth/Ocean counties in New Jersey. This is because a departing high pressure system, located near the New England Coast early this morning, still has enough cold air associated with it from the surface on up to 6,000 feet to provide this.
And the metamorphosis of this snow-to-ice changeover will be driven tonight by the arrival of warmer air aloft. Temperatures above 2,000 feet will be climbing into the upper-30s and lower-40s along the coast and in most of the bigger cities located along I-95, and a gradual warming above the surface will even spread into areas north and west of the coastal plain late tonight and tomorrow. However, the problem that those places much farther inland will have, as we’ve been stressing so much over the past two or three days, is that cold air near the surface remaining trapped will result in more sleet and freezing rain.
Very close scrutiny of the modified soundings (or, vertical profiles of the temperature and moisture content in the atmosphere) WILL BE CRITICAL here during the next 36 hours, because they do hold the key in determining which places will see more sleet and which will have more freezing rain in the second phase of this storm — which will occur late tonight and during the day Wednesday. Because of this, the true complexity of this major winter storm has much to do with the fact that it’ll be affecting so many places in two parts. In fact, we can certainly envision how a lull in all forms of precipitation tonight may last for around six hours. This window, when there won’t be much more than flurries or freezing drizzle occurring, will vary from place to place. But the models would imply that it will occur between 8 p.m. tonight and 2 a.m. tomorrow.
The second phase of this storm, which I alluded to earlier, is going to come as the direct result of low pressure moving out of the Midwest tonight and into upstate New York on Wednesday afternoon. And, as I briefly commented on yesterday, there should be a secondary, or coastal wave, forming late Wednesday night. However, it’ll be located so far to the east (and near Boston) when it materializes, that it won’t have any real tremendous impact on the weather in areas south and west of Connecticut Wednesday night.
We’re still going to mention the concept that all of the ice (well inland) and rain (mostly along the coast) Wednesday night could briefly change back to snow before ending, but there will be little additional accumulation as the result of this.
Had enough yet?? Well, even though temperatures later on Wednesday afternoon (or early Wednesday night) will peak in the upper-30s across much of southeastern New York, southern New England and in northern New Jersey and the mid-40s in Philadelphia and along portions of the Jersey Shore, colder air will quickly follow on its heels late Wednesday night and Thursday. We’re still anticipating a gusty wind on Thursday, and dry weather for both Thursday and Friday. But there will be another storm that will be moving up the coast this weekend.
All of the details aren’t etched in stone, but some snow, some rain, or a combination of both could impact the region from Saturday into Sunday.
Have a good day!!!
METEOROLOGIST BILL EVANS
do what I-m doing!
I’m picking up my girls from school before the storm sets in. No way We’ll make it home in this weather!