An American’s Predictions on the Israeli Election

There are just two days to the Israeli elections and the pollsters’ have released their final polls hoping to be closest to the actual result. Israeli polling firms are notoriously off target, and have failed to pick up on many trends and political waves.

Israeli media in general and pollsters in particular are seen by many as politically biased. They are accused of using the news and polls to influence the elections outcome.

These facts make it very difficult to judge Israeli political landscape. In order to do so, one must ‘read between the lines’ by following the political momentum and shifts from many sources, while simultaneously filtering out the ingrained biases.

CrownHeights.info has been following the Israeli campaign closely and for the first time will take a chance at predicting its outcome.

You are invited to add your own predictions in the comments.

Overview

The Israeli elections are different to the US elections because voters do not vote directly for the prime minister but rather for a party. The percentage of votes decides how many representatives from that party will join the Knesset.

There are 120 Knesset members in the Israeli parliament from many parties. The prime minister does not have to be from the largest party. Whoever has the backing of a majority of Knesset members becomes prime minister.

The smallest a party can be is four seats if they don’t hit that mark even though they have the backing of 3% of the voters their votes are considered invalid. This is called the voter threshold.

Here is our prediction of how many seats each party will get, along with a short explanation.

Likud: 22 (Up from 18)

Benjamin Netanyahu’s party will not be the largest party. He took a real beating this election cycle however his opponents are not seen as real alternatives for prime minister. He will need the support from other right wing parties to remain in power.

Machane Tziyoni – Labor: 23 (15 in last Knesset)

The joint power agreement between Yitzchak (Buzi) Hertzog and Tzippy Livni united the ‘anyone but Bibi’ camp under one banner, making them the largest party. The real question is whether they were able to bring in enough swing voters from the center and right, and not just shift support from other left parties.

Arab party: 13 (11 in last Knesset)

For the first time all the Arab parties put aside their vast differences – Some supported Asad and others the Syrian rebels – and joined forces. They will undoubtedly gain a few seats.

Bayit Yehudi: 13 (12 in last Knesset)

Despite reaching a whopping twenty seats in polls just a few short months ago, party leader Naftali Bennet’s push to have a more secular list of candidates and his allocating a spot to Eli Ohana a left leaning soccer player, turned off many of his base voters.

Yesh Atid: 12 (19 in last Knesset)

The anti religious party made plenty enemies when it ran the finance ministry. Its policies of cutting social programs did not go over well in the social economy of Israel.

Kulanu: 7 (New party)

This new party seems to have picked up those voters who have left Yesh Atid. The party leader Moshe Kahlon – who broke off from Likud – has a record of social programs and welfare for the poor. Kahlon may prove to be kingmaker, with both the right and the left hoping for his support.

Yahadus Hatorah: 7 (7 in last Knesset)

In spite of natural growth; infighting within its party particularly with the ‘Bnei Torah’ faction and the lack of real outreach to many Chasidic groups will keep the religious party from making electoral gains.

Shas: 7 (11 in last Knesset)

The passing of the party’s dynamic leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef left a void that his successors could not fill. The release of a recording where Rabbi Yosef is heard calling current party leader Arye Deri ‘a thief and evil person’ and the departure of Eli Yishai (the party’s former leader) left the party in shambles.

Yisrael Betianu: 6 (13 in last Knesset)

A non-stop string of investigations (almost always ending without charges), have sucked out much of the party’s support.

Yachad: 6 (New Party)

As a religious party with right wing principals, Yachad stands to get votes from many who feel unrepresented by the left leaning religious parties. The diverse combination of ultra-orthodox and Mizrachi candidates makes this party a great address for various communities.

Meretz: 4 (6 in last Knesset)

A strong campaign by the united Labor party has pulled voters away from this smaller extreme left party, leaving it hovering above the voting threshold.

These parties will not be in the next Knesset and were swallowed by Labor.

Kadima 0 (2 in last Knesset)

Down from a high of twenty nine seats, Ariel Sharon’s party barely outlived him. Its members scattered in all directions, some tried to rejoin Likud but most went to the left or out of politics altogether.

Hatnua 0 (6 in last Knesset)

Tzipi Livni went from Likud to Kadima to Hatnua, finally merging with Labor in a power sharing deal, thus completing her shift to the left.

The Chabad Vote

Many parties are actively pursuing the Chabad vote

Based on the election results for the 18th Knesset in Kfar Chabad (the only place where we can get a clear sampling of the Chabad vote), CrownHeights.info can predict how Chabad will vote.

Yachad: 80%

Yahadut Hatorah 10%

Bayit Yehudi 5%

Likud 5%

Have your own predictions? Tell us what you think of ours and share your own in the comments below!

Vote counts in past elections in Kfar Chabad.
Vote counts in past elections in Kfar Chabad.

14 Comments

  • Ma Rabbi

    Netanyahu must win. Not because he is a Tzadik but because he is 100 times better than the leftist Herzog Livni party.

  • liberman might not make it in

    For the same reasons as meretz but in reverse. Likud is taking their votes.
    They have more room to lose becouse they started with much more but there is a possibilty that he won’t make it

  • dovid

    not sure how anyone can vote for gimmel…lizman himself said he has no problem being in a colition with meretz as long as they give money….shas is out of the question for the same as above…only options is for yachad, baiyt yehudi or even likkud (especially if you want to be part of a serious party) the notion that one needs to vote for a charaidi party is rubbish it is not a klal for everyone. the letter they quote was at times of mi yehudi for one individual…there is a kanyoo in israel who always twists everything to the tune of a make lubavitch being radicial….anyone who votes gimmel or shas is out of thrie mind.

    • yachad is a frum party

      So even those who buy into the ‘only a frum party’ Should vote for yachad

    • Correction

      The Rebbe’s instruction for voting for the most Chareidi party (1951) started long before the Mihu Yehudi issue (1970) surfaced and the Rebbe forever afterwards kept repeating the same instruction without any connection to Mihu Yehudi, so check the history before you make any such comments.

      In addition the Rebbe also added another condition that Chabad should vote for the Chareidi parties which support “technical unity” which means that all the religious parties (in those days the Mizrachi, Aguda & Poalei Aguda) should unite just for the purpose of the election and that after the elections they can go their own ways and work in the Knesset under their own banner (1955, 1959, 1965), again long before the Mihu Yehudi issue came to the surface.

      The reason being that the Rebbe simply wanted as many openly religious Jews to be represented in the Knesset so they will advocate for the needs of the religious people.

      Lookup for example Igros Kodesh vol. 18 p 290, 444, 554 & vol. 19 p 25, 290 and Likkutei Sichos vol. 21 p 420-427 and many more.

  • extremly close

    If this prediction is off even by one toward the left.this nut hertzog and livni could become prime minister
    If you are in israel and cam vote please vote tomoroow for a right wing party

  • non-gender

    Just wonder how much Obama’s “unofficial interference into Israeli politics” will have????

  • Thanks

    Looks like pretty good analysis. Leaning towards Yachad because as one person on Jewish Press wrote, at least there should be one group screaming from the rafters and making noise no matter what happens…

  • Goin' for Shas.

    I’m gonna go for Shas on this one, because I’m sephardic. However, I think I think if Rav Ovadia Yosef, ZT”L, were still around a lot more people would vote for Shas. But I like Bibi a lot, and would be happy if he won.

  • Shleimus Haoretz

    The overriding concern for anyone who wants to do the Rebbe’s wish is to vote for shelimus haoretz.

    Shleimus Haoretz is the one and only present issue which is directly connected to pikuach nefesh b’poel mamash!

    One should vote only with shelimus haoretz in mind. This is the call of the hour by far.

    • Shleimus Haoretz

      Please give us a source in the Rebbe’s words that says that the only think to vote by is Shleimus Haoretz. My research doesn’t show any such direct instruction, I do agree that this is a primary concern, but to say that this is what the Rebbe said is a bit (or a lot) of a stretch.

      The Rebbe does say 1) vote for the most Chareidi party. 2) vote for those who support a technically united religious front of all religious parties for the purposes of elections only.

  • Anonymous

    Most religious parties, will join the party that will over them the most STUFF. They will not do whats is in the best interest of Israel or for the united religious front.