Now things get interesting

No one should be indifferent to human suffering, and we have certainly been exposed to an overdose of suffering and tragedy over the past two weeks. As this phase of the disengagement draws to a close, we need to go beyond empathizing with its victims.

The big question – for supporters and opponents alike – is what happens next? Will Gaza become a base for Islamic terrorism, as Binyamin Netanyahu would have us believe? Will disengagement be followed by further withdrawals, as the settlers fear? Will Labor bolt the coalition and trigger new elections, as both radical Right and Left hope?

A tentative assessment of what lies in store for us is called for.

One of the problems in Gaza is the proliferation of tiny extremist gangs, usually numbering at most a few dozen members. They are as unpredictable as they are unaccountable. They are equally liable to kidnap a French journalist as to shoot at a Jewish target. The danger of future violence in Gaza emanates more from these fringe groups than from Hamas, not because Hamas has suddenly embraced Zionism, but because it will not want to endanger its participation in the upcoming elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council by risking a showdown with the Palestinian Authority.

Those elections are scheduled for next January. Thus we may find ourselves in a situation in which both the Israeli and the Palestinian public will be increasingly immersed in approaching elections in the months to come.

Elections on both sides could provide a breathing space in post-disengagement activity until the summer of 2006. But will the Americans accept such a prolonged time-out, or will they act in accordance with the proposal of last week’s London Economist, that “the day after Mr. Sharon pulls out must be the day that Mr. Bush steps in”?

The belief in government circles is that the Americans will not be in a hurry to step in, certainly not if an election campaign gets under way. They can, however, be expected to demand more confidence-building measures from Israel, and to up the ante on the Palestinian side of the equation. Quietly, without fanfare, they have been becoming increasingly involved under the expert command of Gen. William “Tip” Ward in overhauling the Palestinian Security Services. His work is considered to be crucial in the weeks following disengagement. The success of the disengagement is now a vital element in America’s Middle Eastern policy, and success entails not only speedy evacuation of the settlers, but also the prevention of violence and anarchy in Gaza after the IDF’s pullout.

Both for the Americans and for the Palestinians it is important to show that “post-occupied” Gaza is a quiet, peaceful place. Our withdrawal from Gaza can then be accepted as a first stage in the implementation of the road map, and as a precursor for more to come in the West Bank.

IF ON the other hand Gaza sinks into terrorism and chaos, then the anti-disengagement activists – and Netanyahu – will be vindicated. It could swing future elections against Sharon. It could justify an Israeli policy of Gaza First – Gaza Last.

President Mahmoud Abbas, as well as the Americans, will therefore do everything in their power to prevent Hamas violence. As for the fringe gangs, they will declare that just as we were unable to prevent Jewish terrorism at Shfaram and Shiloh, so too the Palestinians will not be able to completely eradicate terrorism by rogue elements.

We will be pressured not to retaliate. We will not like such argumentation, but we can expect it.
On our side we will want international recognition that the occupation of Gaza has come to an end. This demand, however, poses a series of questions for which no one has yet supplied answers. If Gaza is not occupied, what is it? Independent? Hardly. Will the Palestinian Authority be the sovereign power there? That would be fine, except for the fact that the power of the Palestinian Authority is based on an agreement with Israel as the occupying force, but Israel no longer sees itself as the occupying power in Gaza. Then there is the question of customs. If we no longer occupy Gaza, what right do we have to apply the joint customs arrangements that we have in the occupied areas?

These are just some of the vexing questions that will be facing us after the completion of the disengagement process. As usual, the Americans will supply at least some of the answers. If Gen. Ward succeeds in improving security, and no less so if James Wolfensohn, the Quartet’s special envoy, can make a real impact by bringing hope to Gazans that their economic plight can be changed for the better, then both we and the Palestinians will have turned a crucial corner towards a better future.

That, however, is not so much an assessment, but more in the nature of a fervent hope.